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India Strategy

16 Feb 2025

3QFY25 earnings season was disappointing with single-digit PAT growth for the Nifty and BSE500. Thi...

Oil & Gas - Strong earnings run in H2FY25

13 Dec 2024

OMC stocks have been rangebound post-Q2FY25 results despite auto-fuel prices remaining frozen oil p...

Insurance - Multiple levers to offset impact of higher surrender value

13 Jun 2024

Insurance regulator IRDA today issued the Master Circular on Life Insurance Products that deals wit...

2024: Bull run to continue

19 Jan 2024

Our 2024 year-end Nifty target of 24 000 imputes an 11% return for the...

CPI inflation

13 Jan 2024

Core and headline divergence to continue Headline CPI rose to 5.69% in...

BFSI – Banks/NBFCs

24 Nov 2023

After firing warning shots for some time now the RBI increased the ris...

Macro performance to drive IT recovery

05 Sep 2023

Our analyses of 22 global technology companies recent quarter performa...

Mortgage growth may moderate a bit; VF, Unsecured loans still in the fast lane

09 Mar 2023

Our discussions with various financing ecosystem participants includin...

New-business growth in low gear is no surprise

10 Nov 2022

On expected lines the Indian life insurance industry reported muted gr...

Cable noise adds to global FX disorder

26 Sep 2022

Massive sell-off in UK markets since last Friday s mini budget reflect...

Peakflation vs. Recession

08 Aug 2022

Stairway to Heaven or Highway to Hell While peakflation nears the mark...

Engineering & Capital Goods, Infra

11 Jul 2022

Project announcements FY22 saw a very strong uptick in fresh investmen...

CPI Inflation - Brace for a front-loaded hike in June

12 May 2022

The April inflation shock of 7.8% is attributable to broad-based gains...

Emkay Global Voices – A Dialogue with Samuel Rines

15 Mar 2022

We hosted Samuel Rines Cross Market Strategist and Marketing Director ...

Inflation - Bracing for 6%+ prints ahead

15 Mar 2022

CPI inflation remained above the upper tolerance level of the RBI in F...

Gold Forecast: Buy on Dips

05 Jul 2021

Looking at the following charts the gold price seems to have gathered ...

Expect US Fed to start tapering balance sheet after 6 months in case of rate hikes in 2023

19 Jun 2021

The hawkish Federal Reserve outcome came as a surprise to the market p...

MCX copper: Reversal likely around 700

17 Jun 2021

The trend in MCX Copper has been bearish ever since it touched a life ...

Gold: Uptrend May Resume as Bulls Take Control

11 May 2021

The MCX gold price continued to exhibit a strong solid show after a bi...

How Long Can the USDINR Spot Rally?

13 Apr 2021

The last week has been very volatile and messy for USDINR spot the spo...

WHERE IS USDINR spot HEADING?

02 Feb 2021

The USDINR spot has continued to trade in the ascending channel with g...

Will US Georgia Runoff Threaten USDINR Trajectory?

06 Jan 2021

After depreciating by nearly 2.36% in 2020 the spotlight is back on ho...

Let Volatility Decide USDINR Trajectory

22 Oct 2020

For a longer time the USDINR pair is struggling to find a firmer direc...

Is this the beginning of a very large move?

04 Sep 2020

The initial USDINR spot pandemic rally phase has been unwound. The ris...

SHORT STRANGLE STRATEGY: USDINR

18 Aug 2020

The short-term outlook for USDINR remains sideways. The much-awaited t...

Fed preview: Will FOMC adopt more cautious stance?

11 Jun 2020

Key Points Fed fund is expected to maintain a status quo tonight Fed m...

Expanding COVID-19 pandemic may take rupee to 75 vs the dollar

16 Mar 2020

Going ahead the rupee will continue to follow the path of other emergi...

Budget 2020: Rupee to consolidate in this range, only a shocking budget will weaken it

27 Jan 2020

Budget 2020-21: The RBI has done its fair by cutting rates 135 bps so ...

Are tough times ahead of rupee amid global headwinds, fiscal risks?

30 Nov 2019

The US-China trade war which began in July 2018 continues to make the ...

Here's how geopolitical tensions impact the portfolios of HNIs

11 Mar 2019

Investment portfolios are impacted time and again by developments with...

Are markets overestimating the risk of recession in the US? Probably yes

04 Jan 2019

With the US treasury curve flattening to 20 bp spread after the last F...

G20 avoids commitment on free trade

05 Dec 2018

The G20 meeting that concluded over the weekend was significant as it ...

RBI cautions on the perils of regulatory encroachment

01 Nov 2018

The lecture by RBI Deputy Governor Dr. Viral Acharya last week pertain...

Is continuing negative NAVs of equity MFs a risk to the broader market?

24 Sep 2018

Last month net sales of equity mutual funds were down 71% compared wit...

Surge in RBI’s utilisation index doesn’t imply pick-up in private capex

21 Aug 2018

The uptick in RBI s capacity utilisation indicator to 75.2% in Q4FY18 ...

RBI to tighten stance from Aug 2018 onwards

31 Jul 2018

With RBI rate decisions now being guided by inflation targeting object...

Farm & rural economy conundrum - is it real?

30 Jul 2018

While rising rural consumption demand is getting reflected in corporat...

Spike in MSPs a lagged intervention to ameliorate farm distress

25 Jul 2018

The government s acceptance of Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for the kh...

Persistent trade protectionism to impel inward looking of Indian policies

16 Apr 2018

The rising tendency of protectionism across the world especially invol...

Economic survey: Quick turnaround in investments unlikely, underplays the role of savings

12 Feb 2018

Economic Survey chapter on the investment slowdown has been rather can...

Inflexion point for private capex upcycle still afar

21 Dec 2017

Recent enthusiasm about a possible turnaround in private corporate cap...

Relapse of G-sec yield curve steepening; private lenders ahead in the cyclical upturn

22 Nov 2017

The sharp decline in the benchmark 10-year G-sec yield to 6.40% in Jun...

Upsurge of retail participation in equities is cyclical, not structural

13 Oct 2017

The epochal ascendance of retail flows into equities since mid-2014 ha...

Fiscal stimulus a fallout of misadventure; likely to be less effective

28 Sep 2017

The hastening up of the central government to suddenly flesh out a fis...

Demonetization shock weighed heavily on RBI’S financials

31 Aug 2017

Preliminary data released by RBI indicates that nearly 98% of the bann...

Ballooning loan waivers unravel structural farm sector concerns

01 Jul 2017

Even as the Farm sector appears to be reviving in 2017 from the bad pa...

Poor GDP print overturns the harvardian rebuke

06 Jun 2017

The Harvardian diatribe over the impact of the demonetization misadven...

Markets on stretched valuation, but exuberance may still enlarge

04 May 2017

The disquiet over stock market valuations is on the rise with Indian b...

Fading Trumpflation does not dim prospects for US and Fed rate tightening

03 Apr 2017

Trumpflation hyperbole is now beset with scaling skepticism. The belie...

Did Q3 GDP print camouflage demonetization impact?

01 Mar 2017

The enigma around the GDP growth numbers has compounded as it understa...

Monetary policy review

08 Feb 2017

Monetary policy review : RBI is signaling the end of the rate easing c...

Trump win & Notes scrappage -Near term jitters provide opportunities

09 Nov 2016

Unfolding of two major events-one domestic and other global have led t...

Upside risks to Inflation from reflationary fiscal & higher commodity prices

30 Aug 2016

RBI in its annual report clearly acknowledged the possibility of deman...

Solid job data can the FED still dither

08 Aug 2016

The stronger than expected gains in non-farm payroll at 255k in July a...

Brexit tremors provide Opportunities as market regains normalcy

24 Jun 2016

The sharp reaction to the eventual Brexit came as a huge surprise for ...

Why a pump-priming could be ineffective proposition? Or No short cuts to sustainable growth revival

10 Feb 2016

Resurfacing of systemic liquidity tightness in the banking system ongoing debate on fiscal containment and obfuscation on the state of the banking sector NPAs are driving in considerable uncertainty. The trinity of these issues encompass the conflicting condition of a still fragile economic cycle which pose credibility issue for the robust official estimates of 7.0-7.4% GDP growth and the diverging prescription from RBI governor Raghuram Rajan and Economic Advisor Arvind Subramani...

Hawkish slant on possible deviation from fiscal rectitude

02 Feb 2016

While keeping the repo rates unchanged at 6.5% RBI elevated the upside...

2015 Recap- 2016 Precap

01 Jan 2016

Year 2015 turned out to be a complicated year for investors with corpo...

Performance of the FMCG Sector

01 Jan 2016

Growth rates in the FMCG space have been impacted by slowing rural demand impacted by income effect reduced sops for rural and unseasonal rainfall. In addition slackness in real estate activities in the urban centres and moderation in lad prices have had an adverse impact on rural sector both in terms of cash flows and wealth effect. On the urban areas there has been some impetus coming on the back of lower commodity prices specially fuel and decline in inflation which has at the ...

Moodys not overstepping; India will do well if its heeds to constructive criticism

19 Dec 2015

The commentary of Moody s expressing concerns on India s outlook from ...

Fed set to break the lift-off dithery

09 Dec 2015

The latest testimony of Federal Reserve s chair Janet Yellen s testimo...

FDI spurt belies affirmation on ‘Make in India’

21 Oct 2015

The recent media hype over India surpassing China and US in FDI inflow...